The last week may well be remembered as Adani week in the Indian markets (or is it going to be this week – time will tell). Key market trends for last week. (1) The Indian Govt interest rates increased, but this happens almost every year before the budget. (2) Foreign investor flows into the Indian debt market remained moderately +ve. (3) Corporate/ Credit spreads have increased moderately in Jan23 so far, per our analysis. However, they remain at very low levels historically. (4) Western market interest rates also increased – China rates were flat. (5) Gold, the risk off commodity, has had a smashing start to the new year 2023. (6) India market volatility increased sharply on the back of Adani, yet only back to normal levels (15-20). US/ EU are also at normal levels. (7) The Indian equity markets reported sharp losses last week. However, take out the extraordinary losses in Adani group stocks and the rest of the Indian market may well have gained! (8) Foreign investor flows into the Indian equity market turned moderately -ve. (9) Global equity markets reported sharp gains led by US/ China – Japan joined the party last week. (10) Energy was weak – moderate losses in Crude Oil – US NatGas flat but Asia LNG declined sharply. (11) The currency markets were relatively stable – Yen/Rupee were moderately weak.
References (writeups during past few weeks) :
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2023/01/29/determined-mena-thematic-portfolio-p2/
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2023/01/27/the-corporate-debt-portfolio-jan23-update/
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2023/01/22/determined-mena-thematic-portfolio-p1/
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2023/01/20/sip-returns-tracker-jan23-update/
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2023/01/18/global-investment-tracker-dec22-update-p2/
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2023/01/13/global-investment-tracker-dec22-update/
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2023/01/08/minority-investors-aatmanirbhar-since/
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2023/01/08/from-2019-to-2022-to-2023e/
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2023/01/06/global-asset-allocation-quilt-2022-edition/
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2023/01/06/india-asset-allocation-quilt-2022-edition/
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2022/12/30/macro-asset-allocation-portfolio-dec22-notes/
https://determinedinvest.wordpress.com/2022/12/23/determined-apparel-portfolio-dec22-update/
